A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
